Project details

Sustainable food production: Scenarios and forecasts for agriculture in 2030 – need for action and long-term strategies for environmental policy

The project aims at a synthesis of studies on future food production. The time horizon is 2030. Trends in primary production are covered as well as trends in input industries, in processing and marketing and in consumption. The background of the study is the much broader aim of a more sustainable economy and society, which is articulated above all in the Agenda 21 of the 1992 UNCED. Environmentally friendly food production is seen as a major pillar in a more sustainable society. The scenarios and forecasts for agriculture in 2030 build on a comprehensive analysis of trends in particular fields. Organic farming, precision agriculture and GPS and energy crop production are some of the areas that are dealt with. The potential effects of EU enlargement, the development of world food markets, future WTO negotiations and the further development of agricultural policy at the EU and the national level are explored. The need for action and long-term strategies for environmental policy are elaborated using three distinct scenarios: a) status quo development; b) technical efficiency scenario; and c) structural change scenario. Emphasis is given to more regionalised food systems and a more quality-oriented agriculture. As for policy the need to support the multi-functionality of agriculture is emphasised. The more recent changes in German agricultural policy are seen as very favourable in terms of the long-term goal of achieving sustainable food production.

Project no.: 



Research | Sustainability and resilience |


German Environment Agency (UBA)


2000 - 2001

Contact person/s at IfLS: 

Jörg Schramek